We introduce and study the problem of calibrating conditional risk, which involves estimating the expected loss of a prediction model conditional on input features. We analyze this problem in both classification and regression settings and show that it is fundamentally equivalent to a standard regression task. For classification settings, we further establish a connection between conditional risk calibration and individual/conditional probability calibration, and develop theoretical insights for the performance metric. This reveals that while conditional risk calibration is related to existing uncertainty quantification problems, it remains a distinct and standalone machine learning problem. Empirically, we validate our theoretical findings and demonstrate the practical implications of conditional risk calibration in the learning to defer (L2D) framework. Our systematic experiments provide both qualitative and quantitative assessments, offering guidance for future research in uncertainty-aware decision-making.

Masked diffusion large language models (dLLMs) are a promising alternative to autoregressive generation. While reinforcement learning (RL) methods have recently been adapted to dLLM fine-tuning, their objectives typically depend on sequence-level marginal likelihoods, which are intractable for masked diffusion models. To address this, we derive Discrete Tilt Matching (DTM), a likelihood-free method that recasts dLLM fine-tuning as state-level matching of local unmasking posteriors under reward tilting. DTM takes the form of a weighted cross-entropy objective with explicit minimizer, and admits control variates that improve training stability. On a synthetic maze-planning task, we analyze how DTM's annealing schedule and control variates affect training stability and prevent mode collapse. At scale, fine-tuning LLaDA-8B-Instruct with DTM yields strong gains on Sudoku and Countdown while remaining competitive on MATH500 and GSM8K.

Transformer-based scientific foundation models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes settings, but current architectures give deterministic outputs and provide limited support for calibrated predictive uncertainty. We propose Stochastic Attention, a lightweight inference-time modification that randomizes attention by replacing softmax weights with normalized multinomial samples controlled by a single concentration parameter, and produces predictive ensembles without retraining. To set this parameter, we introduce a calibration objective that matches the stochastic attention output with the target, yielding an efficient univariate post-hoc tuning problem. We evaluate this mechanism on two scientific foundation models for weather and timeseries forecasting along with an additional regression task. Across benchmarks against uncertainty-aware baselines, we find that Stochastic Attention achieves the strongest native calibration and the sharpest prediction intervals at comparable coverage, while requiring only minutes of post-hoc tuning versus days of retraining for competitive baselines.

This paper investigates the off-policy evaluation (OPE) problem from a distributional perspective. Rather than focusing solely on the expectation of the total return, as in most existing OPE methods, we aim to estimate the entire return distribution. To this end, we introduce a quantile-based approach for OPE using deep quantile process regression, presenting a novel algorithm called Deep Quantile Process regression-based Off-Policy Evaluation (DQPOPE). We provide new theoretical insights into the deep quantile process regression technique, extending existing approaches that estimate discrete quantiles to estimate a continuous quantile function. A key contribution of our work is the rigorous sample complexity analysis for distributional OPE with deep neural networks, bridging theoretical analysis with practical algorithmic implementations. We show that DQPOPE achieves statistical advantages by estimating the full return distribution using the same sample size required to estimate a single policy value using conventional methods. Empirical studies further show that DQPOPE provides significantly more precise and robust policy value estimates than standard methods, thereby enhancing the practical applicability and effectiveness of distributional reinforcement learning approaches.

We introduce Prior-Fitted Functional Flows, a generative foundation model for pharmacokinetics that enables zero-shot population synthesis and individual forecasting without manual parameter tuning. We learn functional vector fields, explicitly conditioned on the sparse, irregular data of an entire study population. This enables the generation of coherent virtual cohorts as well as forecasting of partially observed patient trajectories with calibrated uncertainty. We construct a new open-access literature corpus to inform our priors, and demonstrate state-of-the-art predictive accuracy on extensive real-world datasets.

We study model-free reinforcement learning (RL) in non-stationary finite-horizon episodic Markov decision processes (MDPs) without prior knowledge of the non-stationarity. We focus on the piecewise-stationary (PS) setting, where both the reward and transition dynamics can change an arbitrary number of times. We propose Detection Augmented Reinforcement Learning (DARLING), a modular wrapper for PS-RL that applies to both tabular and linear MDPs, without knowledge of the changes. Under certain change-point separation and reachability conditions, DARLING improves the best available dynamic regret bounds in both settings and yields strong empirical performance. We further establish the first minimax lower bounds for PS-RL in tabular and linear MDPs, showing that DARLING is the first nearly optimal algorithm. Experiments on standard benchmarks demonstrate that DARLING consistently surpasses the state-of-the-art methods across diverse non-stationary scenarios.

This paper proposes StrEBM, a structured latent energy-based model for source-wise structured representation learning. The framework is motivated by a broader goal of promoting identifiable and decoupled latent organization by assigning different latent dimensions their own learnable structural biases, rather than constraining the entire latent representation with a single shared energy. In this sense, blind source separation is adopted here as a concrete and verifiable testbed, through which the evolution of latent dimensions toward distinct underlying components can be directly examined. In the proposed framework, latent trajectories are optimized directly together with an observation-generation map and source-wise structural parameters. Each latent dimension is associated with its own energy-based formulation, allowing different latent components to gradually evolve toward distinct source-like roles during training. In the present study, this source-wise energy design is instantiated using Gaussian-process-inspired energies with learnable length-scales, but the framework itself is not restricted to Gaussian processes and is intended as a more general structured latent EBM formulation. Experiments on synthetic multichannel signals under linear and nonlinear mixing settings show that the proposed model can recover source components effectively, providing an initial empirical validation of the framework. At the same time, the study reveals important optimization characteristics, including slow late-stage convergence and reduced stability under nonlinear observation mappings. These findings not only clarify the practical behavior of the current GP-based instantiation, but also establish a basis for future investigation of richer source-wise energy families and more robust nonlinear optimization strategies.

Bayesian Deep Ensembles (BDEs) represent a powerful approach for uncertainty quantification in deep learning, combining the robustness of Deep Ensembles (DEs) with flexible multi-chain MCMC. While DEs are affordable in most deep learning settings, (long) sampling of Bayesian neural networks can be prohibitively costly. Yet, adding sampling after optimizing the DEs has been shown to yield significant improvements. This leaves a critical practical question: How long should the sequential sampling process continue to yield significant improvements over the initial optimized DE baseline? To tackle this question, we propose a stopping rule based on E-values. We formulate the ensemble construction as a sequential anytime-valid hypothesis test, providing a principled way to decide whether or not to reject the null hypothesis that MCMC offers no improvement over a strong baseline, to early stop the sampling. Empirically, we study this approach for diverse settings. Our results demonstrate the efficacy of our approach and reveal that only a fraction of the full-chain budget is often required.

In this work, we revisit the problem of active sequential prediction-powered mean estimation, where at each round one must decide the query probability of the ground-truth label upon observing the covariates of a sample. Furthermore, if the label is not queried, the prediction from a machine learning model is used instead. Prior work proposed an elegant scheme that determines the query probability by combining an uncertainty-based suggestion with a constant probability that encodes a soft constraint on the query probability. We explored different values of the mixing parameter and observed an intriguing empirical pattern: the smallest confidence width tends to occur when the weight on the constant probability is close to one, thereby reducing the influence of the uncertainty-based component. Motivated by this observation, we develop a non-asymptotic analysis of the estimator and establish a data-dependent bound on its confidence interval. Our analysis further suggests that when a no-regret learning approach is used to determine the query probability and control this bound, the query probability converges to the constraint of the max value of the query probability when it is chosen obliviously to the current covariates. We also conduct simulations that corroborate these theoretical findings.

Classical mixture models (MMs) are widely used tractable proposals for approximate inference settings such as variational inference (VI) and importance sampling (IS). Recently, mixture models with negative coefficients, called subtractive mixture models (SMMs), have been proposed as a potentially more expressive alternative. However, how to effectively use SMMs for VI and IS is still an open question as they do not provide latent variable semantics and therefore cannot use sampling schemes for classical MMs. In this work, we study how to circumvent this issue by designing several expectation estimators for IS and learning schemes for VI with SMMs, and we empirically evaluate them for distribution approximation. Finally, we discuss the additional challenges in estimation stability and learning efficiency that they carry and propose ways to overcome them. Code is available at: https://github.com/april-tools/delta-vi.